Real Charts about Real Data

December 10, 2009

Discuss. Here are my thoughts:

1) No surprise that Attempts per INT has decreased over the years. The advent of West Coast offense and new rule changes have improved the passing game a lot. That’s what the intention of the rule change was, so good job rule change.

ii) Attempts per Game has definitely increased substantially since 1970, but not a whole lot since 1994. That’s gotta be West Coast Offense proliferation. By 1994, Bill Walsh was no longer a coach, but several of his disciples had spread the word. The teams that wanted to implement the WCO had started (except Andy Reid who would come a few years later), and the teams that were doing whatever they were doing were still going to do that thing. Since then, there hasn’t been a sweeping change to offensive schemes, hence the relative stability in the numbers.

three) I was a little surprised by the Attempts per INT increase. It’s really staggering. As in, the composite 2009 QB has much better A/I numbers than a composite Hall of Famer. But I’ll post the HOF numbers separately because the HOF is really hard to figure out.

now click for some charts
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Real Charts about Real Data

December 7, 2009

I have now archived QB Stats from 1970 – 2009. I got them from Pro Football Reference, which is an incredible site. Now that I have all of this stuff archived, I can start analyzing it. Sometimes, it doesn’t amount to much. But hopefully I can write up a big article about what I discover. Click the jump for a figure, without absolutely no context or anything.
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Something big

December 2, 2009

My brother sent me this on Monday:

Attached is the top 25 QBs in order of career attempts, along with their attempts per INT. 25th place has 4519 pass attempts. Donovan has by far the highest ratio. As a comparison, the best in the history of the game is Aaron Rodgers who only has 976 attempts, but completes 51.3 passes between interceptions, and the worst is HOFer Arnie Herber, who threw at an amazing rate of 11 attempts per INT.

One thing became another, and pretty soon I was creating spreadsheets, charts, paragraphs, etc. It turned into a full blown investigation of Attempts per INT, past and present. And in the middle of all that, I realized that I couldn’t just talk about Attempts per INT. I had to go even bigger than that. There were so many other things that have changed so significantly, and I feel like they were all worth mentioning. After stopping at 130AM, I laid in bed contemplating what the thesis of this whole thing will be, and I think I finally arrived on something.

Something big. But it’ll be a while.

And Florida says …

December 1, 2009

If you were the head coach of the University of Florida, and one of your starting defensive players got hit with a DUI the week before the biggest game of the season, you would do:

a) Suspend him for the next game
b) Suspend him for the next game and any bowl game
c) Wait until he is convicted of anything until punishment is handed out
d) Nothing

Tennessee set a precedent by immediately suspending all 3 players involved in an armed robbery recently. They recently reinstated one of the players after he was cleared, but the other two remain suspended despite not being convicted of anything yet. So what should Florida do with Carlos Dunlap?

No one has virtually fumbled more than Ricky Williams. I have no stats to back that up, but while I played as Ricky Williams in Madden ’00, ’01, and ’02, he was guaranteed to put the ball on the turf once a game. I’ve never fully recovered from the damage he did to my Madden career, but somehow, he’s recovered from the damage he’s done to his own.
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Bud Light ran a regional commercial during the Eagles-Cowboys game last night. I’m assuming the same commercial ran in Dallas, only the footage was Dallas-related instead of Philadelphia related.

Also, I assume that Dallas was spelled right.

PhilidelphiaSmall

Nothing gets the home team fired up like misspelling their hometown

Any other blogs post this? I think I should e-mail Bud Light. Only saw the commercial once, but it definitely happened.

Sorry there haven’t been any posts lately. I’m incredibly busy with an conference and escorting some German folks around Philadelphia. They did nothing but help me and Catherine for the last 5 months, so it’s only fair.

Last week in Delaware, I got murdered. It was the first week that a ton of favorites didn’t cover. Bound to happen I guess. Just wish I hadn’t loaded up on them. In HD of course.

So this week I’m licking my wounds and going with some single game bets. Even though I got killed by favorites last week, I still like two this week: New England (-15), and Indy (-14.5). Probably couldn’t make those lines high enough. NE is playing in London this week, which is cause for a little concern, especially since I know what that jetlag is like, and it’s a bitch. However, Tampa Bay is going to be jetlagged too, and they suck, so I think that’s good for 15 points. Indy is playing St. Louis. St. Louis has a stadium and probably pays some league fees, but other than that there is little resemblance to an actual NFL team.

I also like the Atlanta Falcons straight up against the Cowboys. The Cowboys are giving 4 points in that game. Earlier in the week, a reporter I follow on twitter had the Cowboys ranked above the Eagles in the NFC. I am not sure what the Cowboys have done to merit that. Giving 4 points at home means that Vegas thinks you’re better than the team you’re playing. I do not think the Cowboys are better than the Falcons. So I’ll take them straight up for 1.95:1 odds (1HD to win 1.95HD). Finally, I think points will be scored in Miami, specifically more than 47.5.

That’s what we got this week. Also, Sunday Matchup will probably be delayed, since I’m flying over the Atlantic tomorrow for my last trip to Germany for a while. Hopefully I can catch up while I’m flying. I have a good idea for a series of posts. Just need to be sitting in one place to write them.